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CBO Estimate Health Premiums

Thursday, December 3, 2009  
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On November 30, the CBO released an analysis of what the proposed Senate bill would do to premiums under the Exchanges.

The CBO predicts that the individual market will see the most drastic effects and the large group market will see the smallest effects under the proposed legislation. According to the CBO report, the individual market makes up 17% of the healthcare market; the small group market makes up 13%, and the large group market makes up 70% of the healthcare market.

How would the Senate bill affect premiums?:

Individual Market (non-employer):
17% of the healthcare market
Premium Rates: 10-13% increase

Currently:                  Senate Bill in 2016:
$5,500 single            $5,800 single= $300 increase
$13,100 family          $15,200 family= $2,100 increase

However, 57% of individuals will take advantage of subsidies which will decrease their premiums by: 56-59%
Increased Coverage: 27-30% increase

Small Group Market:
13% of the healthcare market
Premium Rates: 1% increase to 2% decrease

Currently:                  Senate Bill in 2016:
$7,800 single            $7,800 single= $0 increase
$19,300 family          $19,200 family= -$100

However, 12% of small businesses will take advantage of small business tax credits which will decrease their premiums by: 8-11%
Increased Coverage: 0-3% increase

Large Group Market:
70% of the healthcare market
Premium Rates: 0% to 3% decrease

Currently:                  Senate Bill in 2016:
$7,400 single            $7,300 single= -$100
$20,300 family          $20,100 family= -$200

No Subsidies for large group market.
Increased Coverage: N/A

 
Click here to read the full CBO report.


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